Problem solved in full
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Earth intercepting 1361 W/m² and its 254.6 K equilibrium temperature 5 steps
Earth intercepts 1361 W/m² and its equilibrium temperature is 254.6 K — that is −18.6 °C, below freezing. Work out where the missing 33 degrees come from, and why the answer divides by four.
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A planet catches sunlight on a disc and radiates from a sphere. Those are different areas — πR² against 4πR² — so the incoming flux is spread over four times the area it arrived on. Getting this wrong is the classic slip, and it puts Earth at 360 K, comfortably above freezing and comfortably wrong.
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Thirty per cent of the light is reflected straight back by cloud, ice and desert, so only 70% is available before the division. 238 W/m² is what actually has to be re-radiated.
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Setting absorbed equal to emitted and solving gives 254.6 K. That is the temperature Earth would sit at if it radiated straight to space from its surface, and it is 18 degrees below freezing.
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It does not, because the atmosphere absorbs outgoing infrared and re-emits some of it downward. The surface has to run hotter to push the same 238 W/m² out through that blanket, and the offset is 33 K.
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The albedo term matters more than it looks, because it sits under a fourth root but multiplies the whole flux. A perfectly black Earth would be 278.3 K; one at 60% albedo would be 221.3 K.
Answer
The tool prints 1361 W/m² incident, 238 absorbed, an equilibrium temperature of 254.6 K and a surface temperature of 287.6 K. The 33 K between the last two is the greenhouse effect, and it is not a marginal correction — it is the difference between a frozen planet and this one. The albedo figures give the other half of the story: raise albedo and the planet cools, which grows ice, which raises albedo further. That runaway has a name and a geological record, and you can walk into it by dragging one slider.
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References (3)
- The conservative zone edges this tool uses — the runaway-greenhouse limit at 1.1 and the maximum-greenhouse limit at 0.53 times Earth’s starlight: J. F. Kasting, D. P. Whitmire & R. T. Reynolds, "Habitable Zones around Main Sequence Stars." Icarus 101(1), 108–128, 1993.
- The limits were re-derived twenty years later with updated absorption data, moving the outer edge further out than the value used here: R. K. Kopparapu et al., "Habitable Zones around Main-sequence Stars: New Estimates." The Astrophysical Journal 765(2), article 131, 2013.
- Insight block 3 — the ice-albedo trap Earth is thought to have fallen into: P. F. Hoffman, A. J. Kaufman, G. P. Halverson and D. P. Schrag, "A Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth." Science 281(5381), 1342–1346, 1998.