Problem solved in full
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Ten years of 2.5% inflation on Β£1000 5 steps
Β£1000, ten years, 2.5% inflation. Most people answer that it loses 25% of its value. Work out the real figure and find where the missing 3 percentage points went.
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Inflation compounds, so ten years at 2.5% is not ten lots of 2.5%. The multiplier is 1.025 raised to the tenth.
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That multiplier answers the forward question: what a basket costing Β£1000 today will cost then.
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The backward question is the one about your savings, and it is the reciprocal β what Β£1000 held in a drawer will then buy.
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So the loss is 21.88%, not 25%. The naive answer is too pessimistic, which is the opposite of what compounding usually does, and the reason is that we are dividing by the compounded factor rather than multiplying by it.
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Solving for when the real value halves gives an exact answer that does not depend on the amount at all. The panel reports a different figure beside it, because it uses the rule of 72 β the shortcut that trades accuracy for arithmetic you can do in your head.
Answer
The tool prints 1280.1 nominal, 781.2 real, and 21.88% of purchasing power lost. The asymmetry is what to keep: prices rose by 28.0% and purchasing power fell by 21.9%, and these are the same event. A 28% rise and a 22% fall look like different numbers because a fraction of a bigger thing is being compared with a fraction of a smaller one β the same reason a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to undo. At 2.5%, money halves in 28.1 years exactly β and the panel says 28.8, because 72/2.5 is the rule of 72 and it runs about 2.5% high at this rate. Both are on the screen and neither is wrong; the rule is a mental shortcut, tuned to be accurate near 8%, and it drifts either side of that. Set inflation to 7% and the two agree far better β 10.25 exact against 10.29 β while the same Β£1000 keeps only 508.35 after ten years.
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Learning path
Money over time
References (1)
- Insight block 3 β the Hungarian hyperinflation, and the 15-hour doubling time: W. A. Bomberger and G. E. Makinen, "The Hungarian Hyperinflation and Stabilization of 1945β1946." Journal of Political Economy 91(5), 801β824, 1983.