Lesson
The theory β Dune Sandworm Intercept Calculator
This is an interception problem, and its real content is that the target is not a point. A sandworm has length, so it does not arrive at an instant β it occupies the mount point for a window of time, and the question is not whether you beat it but whether you arrive inside that window.
What each symbol means
v_worm- the wormβs speed,
22 m/s, and the distance it must cover,1800 m. L- the wormβs length,
120 m. This is what converts an arrival time into an interval. v_team- the teamβs speed,
18 m/s, over their own approach distance of900 m. delay- the setup delay before they can move, added directly to their arrival time.
Where the formula comes from
- Each arrival is just distance over speed. The wormβs head reaches the point at
1800 / 22 = 81.82 s; the team arrives at900 / 18 = 50 s, plus any delay. - The wormβs tail is
Lbehind its head, so it clears the pointL / v_wormlater:120 / 22 = 5.45 safter the head, at87.27 s. - So the opportunity is the interval from
81.82 sto87.27 s. Arriving at50 sis early β comfortably inside it, with the whole worm still to pass.
How to read what you see
Three times, each with its division shown: when the head arrives, when the tail finally clears, and when the team gets there. Comparing the third against the first two is the whole answer β and the wording of the verdict is careful about which of the two it beat.
- Assumes
- Constant speeds in straight lines, both parties starting at the same moment, and a worm that neither accelerates nor changes course. It is a timing model, not a chase: nothing here reacts to anything.
- Breaks when
- Being early is not automatically safe, and the model cannot tell you so. It compares arrival times only β it has no notion of being seen, of waiting exposed for thirty seconds, or of a worm that alters course because something is standing there. A longer or slower worm widens the window, which reads as good news, but the same change means more time spent alongside a very large animal.
Problems solved in full
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Worm closing at 22 m/s and team crossing sand at 18 m/s 5 steps
A worm 1800 m out, closing at 22 m/s, 120 m from head to tail. Your team waits 900 m from the mount point and crosses sand at 18 m/s, moving the instant the thumper starts. Do you make it, and how fast could that worm be before you don't?
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Distance over speed puts the worm's head on the mount point at 81.82 s. That is the number most people then race against, and it is the wrong one.
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You are not trying to beat the head. A hook lands anywhere along the body, so the last usable instant is when the tail goes past, and that grace is the worm's own length divided by its own speed. Note what that ratio implies: size buys time only in proportion to how slowly the worm is moving.
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Your side is a delay plus a run. Setup time is dead time before the sprint rather than a drag on it, so it adds to the total instead of scaling it. Here it is 0, and 900 m at 18 m/s is 50 s flat.
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Subtract, and the margin is 37.27 s. Put that back on the sand: you are standing on the mount point with the worm's head still 1800 β 22 Γ 50 = 700 m away, waiting.
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The four inputs never mattered separately. Everything on the worm's side collapses into one time, and everything on yours into another; the verdict is only which of the two is larger. That is why a 200 m worm and a 120 m worm can be the same problem.
Answer
37.27 s of margin: you are early, not lucky. Turn the inequality round and it names a ceiling. At this geometry the intercept survives any worm up to 1920 Γ· 50 = 38.4 m/s and fails above it, and the tool never prints that number because it only ever scores the worm you gave it. What happens to your grace on the way up to that ceiling is the part worth keeping: the body window is L Γ· v, so the same 120 m worm that hands you 5.45 s at 22 m/s hands you 3.13 s at 38.4 m/s. The worm's length is worth least exactly when the worm is fastest. Setup delay is harsher still, because it is subtracted before the division rather than after: carry 45 s of it and the ceiling falls from 38.4 m/s to 1920 Γ· 95 = 20.2 m/s, under the 22 m/s worm you started with. Same worm, same sand, and the run is now unwinnable. Nothing moved but your watch.
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The Fast worm state of 45 m/s and a team 900 m out 6 steps
The Fast worm state: 45 m/s, 200 m long, 1500 m from the mount point, your team still 900 m out at 18 m/s with no setup delay. Bigger worm, shorter chase than the last problem. Show that neither helps, and price the two ways out.
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45 m/s eats 1500 m in 33.33 s, and the 200 m body then buys 4.44 s. That is less grace than the 120 m body bought at 22 m/s, despite being 67% longer. Grace is L Γ· v, and the denominator won.
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So the boarding window shuts at 37.78 s.
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Your side has not changed at all: 900 m at 18 m/s is the same 50 s it was in the first problem. Every difference between the two runs sits on the worm's side of the ledger.
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You are 12.22 s late, which is not a near miss. In those 12.22 s the worm covers 550 m, so the tail you were reaching for is half a kilometre downrange by the time your boots reach the mount point.
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One way out is speed. The distance is fixed and the window is fixed, so the requirement is 900 m inside 37.78 s. That is 32% above 18 m/s, and speed is the one quantity on your side you cannot simply decide to have.
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The other way out is geometry. Keep 18 m/s and your reachable radius is speed times window: 680 m, which is 220 m nearer than where you chose to wait. That choice is made before the thumper drops, not after.
Answer
The run misses by 12.22 s, and both rescues are priced at the same 32%. That is not a coincidence. The ceiling for this geometry is (1500 + 200) Γ· 50 = 34 m/s, so this worm sits 45 Γ· 34 = 1.32 times over it, and dividing the margin equation through by that ratio makes it appear everywhere at once: the speed you would need is 18 Γ 1.32 = 23.82 m/s, and the distance you can afford is 900 Γ· 1.32 = 680 m. A single number, how far past its ceiling the worm is, prices every fix simultaneously. It also settles which fix is real. You choose where to wait; you do not choose how fast you run. So the ambush point is the only lever that ever moves, and moving it the full 220 m brings the margin to exactly 0 β a dead heat, and a dead heat is not a boarding.
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References (2)
- The premise: Frank Herbert, Dune. First published 1965; Ace Books edition, ISBN 978-0-441-17271-9.
- The mathematics underneath the fiction β interception and pursuit treated properly: Paul J. Nahin, Chases and Escapes: The Mathematics of Pursuit and Evasion. Princeton University Press, 2007. ISBN 978-0-691-15501-2.