Problem solved in full
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Checking the gravitational force against the Moon's actual orbit 5 steps
Work out the Earth–Moon gravitational force, check it against the Moon's actual orbit — and then ask whether the Earth is even the dominant pull on the Moon.
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One formula, three numbers, and the only care needed is the square. Distances enter twice and masses once, so a 1% error in r costs 2%.
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Multiply the top, square the bottom, divide. The tool prints this figure and nothing else on the page is measured.
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Force is not the check — acceleration is, because that is what an orbit shows. Divide by the Moon's mass.
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Now get the same acceleration from the orbit itself: the Moon covers 2πr in 27.32 days, and a circular orbit needs v²/r. The 1% gap is real and is the Earth moving too — both bodies circle their common centre.
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Finally, run the same law with the Sun in place of the Earth. The mass ratio and the distance ratio fight each other, and the mass ratio wins.
Answer
1.98 × 10²⁰ N, and no: the Sun pulls the Moon 2.2 times harder. That ratio is a fact about masses and distances only — the Sun is 333,000 times heavier and 389 times further, and 333,000/389² = 2.2 — so it holds no matter what you think an orbit is. The consequence is genuinely strange: the Moon's path around the Sun is everywhere concave toward the Sun. It never loops backwards. What the Earth does is not hold the Moon captive against the Sun; it perturbs a solar orbit the two of them are already sharing, which is why the Moon's orbit is described relative to the Earth by convention rather than by necessity.
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References (1)
- The law this tool evaluates, and the third-law pairing block 2 turns on: I. Newton, Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica, Book III, Proposition VII. London, 1687.