Lesson
The theory — Buy vs Rent: Net Worth Compared
A fair comparison starts both households with the same cash and gives them the same budget every month. The buyer spends it on a mortgage, a loan repaid in equal monthly payments M = L·r(1 + r)ⁿ ÷ ((1 + r)ⁿ − 1), where L is the loan, r the monthly rate and n the number of payments, plus the costs of owning. The renter pays rent and invests everything the buyer spends beyond it, including the deposit; when owning costs less, the buyer invests the difference instead. Net worth is what each would have if everything were sold: the home less selling costs and the loan still owed, or the investments. The break-even year is the first year the buyer's net worth reaches the renter's.
What each symbol means
M- the monthly mortgage payment. Part interest, part principal, and the principal share grows each month
L- the loan, the price less the deposit
P/R- the price-to-rent ratio, price ÷ a year's rent. Other things equal, high favours renting and low favours buying
g- home price growth a year. Compounds on the whole price, not only on the deposit
i- the investment return a year. What the renter's money, and the buyer's deposit, could have earned
- Assumes
- Both households invest every spare unit of money at the same return and never spend it; neither moves house again before the horizon; the mortgage rate is fixed for the whole term. Real households often do not invest the difference, and a comparison that assumes they do flatters whichever side spends less each month: at the balanced settings, the renter for the first 17 years.
Problem solved in full
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What owning really costs in the first year 5 steps
A 400,000 home is bought with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage at 5%. Prices rise 3% a year. Property tax and maintenance are 1% each of the current value a year, charged monthly, and insurance is 1,200 a year. The alternative is renting at 1,800 a month, with 200 a year of renter's insurance and a 3,600 deposit that is returned, and investing at 6%. Find the monthly payment, the owner's cash cost in year 1, and how much of it does not come back. Press Balanced to check.
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The loan is 320,000, the monthly rate 0.05 ÷ 12 and the number of payments 360:
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In year 1 the owner pays twelve payments, split into interest and principal, plus the running costs:
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Principal is not spent: it comes back in the sale. But the deposit and principal would have grown if invested, and that growth is lost:
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The renter's year: rent, insurance, and the growth given up on the 3,600 rental deposit:
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As a share of the price, the owner's unrecoverable year is:
Answer
The payment is 1,717.83 a month. The owner pays 29,923 in cash in year 1, and the money that does not come back is 30,129, a little more than the cash itself, 7.53% of the price, against the renter's 22,016. The owner is 8,113 behind on the year before the price moves, and whether buying wins depends on the price rising enough to make up both this and the costs of buying and selling, which is the sensitivity grid's question.
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