Problem solved in full
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Two randomly chosen adults with μ = 170 cm 5 steps
How far apart are two randomly chosen adults? This is Heights: μ = 170 cm with σ = 10 cm, and the shaded band runs from x₁ = 160 to x₂ = 180 cm.
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Standardising turns centimetres into standard deviations, which is the only currency the normal table accepts. The band is exactly one σ either side of the mean.
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The curve is symmetric about the mean, so the area below −1 equals the area above +1 and the shaded middle is whatever is left. One table value does the whole calculation.
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Now change the question: not one person against the average, but two people against each other. Variances add for independent quantities even when the quantities are subtracted, so the difference is spread wider than either height is.
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A 10 cm difference between two people is therefore only 0.71 standard deviations of D, where the same 10 cm was a full standard deviation for one person.
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The far tail of that same difference distribution gives the chance a pair look strikingly unalike.
Answer
68.3% of adults fall between 160 and 180 cm, and the 15.9% above 180 is what is left once the tool's Φ(z₂) = 84.1% below it is taken away. The difference between two adults is spread by 10√2 = 14.142 cm, so barely half of all pairs (52.1%) differ by less than 10 cm, while about one pair in six differs by more than 20 cm. Those two one-in-six figures are not the same fact, and it is worth separating them: one person exceeds the mean by 10 cm about one time in six, and one pair differs by 20 cm about one time in six. The σ written on a distribution measures distance from the mean, but the differences you actually notice are between two draws, and those run 1.414 times wider.
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Learning path
From counts to curves
References (3)
- Insight block 1 — the 5σ bar, and the announcement that had to clear it: ATLAS Collaboration, "Observation of a new particle in the search for the Standard Model Higgs boson with the ATLAS detector at the LHC." Physics Letters B 716(1), 1–29, 2012.
- CMS Collaboration, "Observation of a new boson at a mass of 125 GeV with the CMS experiment at the LHC." Physics Letters B 716(1), 30–61, 2012.
- Insight block 3 — the law that says the curve is misnamed: S. M. Stigler, "Stigler's Law of Eponymy." Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences 39(1), 147–157, 1980.