Problem solved in full
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The n = 30 rule for a uniform source on [0, 1] 5 steps
What is the n = 30 rule actually a rule about? This is the default state: a Uniform source on [0, 1] with sample size n = 30.
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The uniform source is flat on [0, 1], so its mean sits at the midpoint and its variance is the second moment minus the square of that. Every number below comes out of this one.
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The standard error follows from the variance and nothing else. It does not need the source to be symmetric, or bell-shaped, or n to be large — the formula is exact at n = 1 and at n = 30 alike, and the only fact it uses is that variances of independent quantities add.
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So the width was never the theorem's business. Shape is, and the standard measure of a lean is skewness. Third central moments add for independent draws exactly as variances do, and skewness is built to survive a rescaling of the axis, so putting the two together leaves the lean of the mean falling as 1/√n.
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The tool's sources start from very different leans. A uniform source has none to lose, so its sample mean is symmetric at every n, n = 1 included; an exponential source starts at skewness 2 and is still leaning right at n = 30.
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Run the same relation backwards for a lean small enough to ignore.
Answer
The table prints a source mean of 0.5 and a standard error of 0.052705, and reproducing that took only the variance 1/12. The last three steps are there to say that this row was never the theorem's doing: the standard error is exact for any n and any source with a finite variance, while what n buys is shape.
The uniform source is already symmetric, so raising n to 30 improves nothing about its lean — the rule of thumb is doing no work on this page's default. An exponential source at n = 30 still carries a skewness of 0.365, and pushing that under 0.1 takes n = 400.
The bimodal source, which looks the least normal of the three, converges about as fast as the uniform: it is symmetric too, so its skewness is 0 at every n, and its excess kurtosis of −1.28 falls as 1/n to −0.043 at n = 30, against the uniform's −0.040. None of those three numbers has a row in the table, which is why the histogram is the only place the convergence can be seen at all. -
Learning path
From counts to curves
References (1)
- Insight block 3 — why averaging Cauchy draws returns the same Cauchy curve: W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume 2, 2nd ed., ch. VI and XVII. Wiley, 1971. ISBN 978-0-471-25709-7 — stable laws, and the finite-variance condition the central limit theorem actually needs.